Twitter Spaces: Recap - Where Are We In The Market Cycle?
Published 28th March 2023 by MSV Team
The last few weeks have been a whirlwind for the traditional financial sector. With major banks shutting their doors or being acquired, we have seen a pinnacle moment in the industry. On the other hand, Crypto has responded in a rally to all this uncertainty, with Bitcoin valued at $29K at its peak a week ago. To dive deeper into this topic, we spoke to - Scott Melker, aka The Wolf Of All Streets; Simon Harman, Co-founder & CEO of Chainflip; and Flavian Manea, Co-founder & CEO of Bware Labs, on Where are we in the Market Cycle.
For everyone who missed the Live Twitter Spaces on Thursday, March 23rd, we have summarized the top 5 key takeaways from the session. You can also listen to the entire live recording in the link below ⬇️
🎙Full Recording Here
Top 5 Key Takeaways
1. Despite external factors, Bitcoin is following its 4-year halving cycle.
The conversation starts by asking our guests where we are in the market cycle and what we expect to see in the future. Scott starts the conversation by saying that we aren't seeing anything too different, despite correlations or external factors. He refers to looking at the 4-year halving cycle charts and that Bitcoin follows the path/trend it has always been on. According to the chart, it makes sense that there was a bottom in November, December, and January, and now leading up to May 2024, Bitcoin is setting itself up for a rampant move to the upside. He states that if we look back at this in a couple of years, many will see it as a normal Bitcoin retract cycle. Simon agrees and says that he is excited about the next cycle and that it's interesting to see Bitcoin following this cycle despite all the external factors. He continues to state that Bitcoin has always led the change, which is not different now, and it will be interesting to see the next wave of projects coming up in the next bull run.
2. Bitcoin following the equity and stock market is a false narrative.
The conversation continues to understand if there is a correlation between the stock market and Bitcoin. All speakers agree that though there have been correlations between the way the stock market moves to Bitcoin there is currently no correlation between the two - essentially arguing that it's a bit of a false narrative.
Simon goes on to say that it's also an issue of timing. Many people in the crypto space at the moment joined after the last black swan event around 2020 and 2021. They might see that there is a strong correlation between the tech stock market and crypto, especially since some events in the past years. However, if you zoom out and take a look at everything that is happening now and the way that Bitcoin specifically is prevailing, there is not that strong of a correlation after all.
3. Products created in this next cycle need to help people in the ecosystem with real-life use cases.
Moving away from the topic of market conditions, the conversation focused a bit more on the project, founder, and product end of the market. As we had both Chainflip and Bware Labs founders on the call, and Scott, who understands the community, we were curious to hear how launching a product in the current market has been and what they want to see in the future from project founders. Both Flavian and Simon agreed that it would be an exciting time, especially as the last couple of months have been difficult to launch products due to the lack of capital and getting interest from the general public. Nevertheless, the space is picking up again, naturally with the rally of Bitcoin, but also because more discussions are happening in mainstream settings around crypto. For this, it's a great time to launch.
All guests also said that in the next bull run, they hope to see projects that solve real-life use cases. They hope founders can be more conscious of what they are creating and that it's not just another "Ponzi" scheme that will create another unnecessary black swan event.
4. Important to create crypto products and crypto content that is easy to understand.
Flavian and Scott dive deeper into the accessibility of products. They both agree that the best way to mainstream adoption is abstracting the complexity that comes with crypto. For example, the vernacular and usability need to be simpler for average users. In the future, users shouldn't be aware that they are using Web3 products and should just be using a product that solves their everyday needs. Moreover, Scott and Simon touched upon the topic of stablecoins in the market. They mentioned that many people use stablecoins instead of their bank accounts despite market conditions. These products have become more popular as they are very useful and understandable products in the ecosystem.
5. There is an opportunity for banks who want to do business with “us” (crypto).
To round off the conversation, we asked our guests what they think the future of banks will look like and what needs to happen for more crypto adoption from the traditional financial sector. Scott starts the conversation and says we are already seeing the early signs of adoption from trad-fi. In the past years, there has been a crisis of confidence in the crypto space, but now we are seeing that shift in this crisis towards the banking system. This phenomenon is opening up people's eyes as there are realizing banks are not the place where everything is safe. However, this doesn't mean that banks are going anywhere. Banks will always be around, but they need to start thinking about how they will adopt digital assets like Bitcoin and how they could potentially help in their reserve; this will shift how banks operate.
The conversation continues with the argument that we don't need too many on and off-ramps. For example, crypto makes up a significant amount of money globally, and there is a demand for these services. And there shouldn't be too many problems getting banks and crypto companies to work together. There is a big opportunity for banks to work with Bitcoin, and if you have a bank that is distressed, why not work with cryptocurrency companies?
The Spaces closes with a statement from Falvian, as he says that it also depends on the regulators and the trust of the traditional institutions. Now is the time for the crypto industry to build trust and learn from our past mistakes. Banks will then see the value of working with crypto companies, and naturally, demand will increase.
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Thanks again to your great panel of guests for such an insightful conversation. We host Roundtables and Live Podcasts via Twitter Spaces every week with great and inspiring people from all around the crypto space. If you want to ensure you don't miss the next one, follow us on Twitter to set your next reminder.
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